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1314 lines (1047 loc) · 49.6 KB
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import random
import scipy.stats as stats
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from scipy.linalg import toeplitz
from scipy.special import expit, softmax
from SCM import StructuralCausalModel # Ensure generateSCM.py is in the same directory
def inv_logit(vec):
return 1/(1+np.exp(-vec))
def BD_SCM(seednum = None, d = 10):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_C(noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
first_column = [2**(-abs(j - 0) - 1) for j in range(d)]
first_row = [2**(-abs(0 - k) - 1) for k in range(d)]
toeplitz_matrix = toeplitz(first_column, first_row)
return stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean = np.zeros(d), cov = toeplitz_matrix, size=num_samples)
def equation_X(C, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_X = inv_logit( np.sum(C,axis=1) + 1 + noise)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_X)
def equation_Y(C, X, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
Csum = np.sum(C,axis=1)
prob_Y = inv_logit( 2*(2 * X - 1)*Csum + 0.5 * Csum + (2*X - 1) + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Y)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_observed_variable('C', equation_C, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['C'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['C', 'X'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
X = ['X']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def Kang_Schafer(seednum = None):
# I refer the one in https://arxiv.org/pdf/1704.00211 Section 5.1.
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_Z1(**kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
return np.random.normal(0, 1, num_samples)
def equation_Z2(**kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
return np.random.normal(0, 1, num_samples)
def equation_Z3(**kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
return np.random.normal(0, 1, num_samples)
def equation_Z4(**kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
return np.random.normal(0, 1, num_samples)
def equation_X(Z1, Z2, Z3, Z4, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_X = inv_logit( -Z1 + 0.5 * Z2 - 0.25 * Z3 - 0.1 * Z4 )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_X)
def equation_Y(Z1, Z2, Z3, Z4, X, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
Y = 210 + X*((27.4 * Z1) + (13.7 * Z2) + (13.7 * Z3) + (13.7 * Z4)) + noise
return Y
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_observed_variable('Z1', equation_Z1, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z2', equation_Z2, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z3', equation_Z3, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z4', equation_Z4, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['Z1', 'Z2', 'Z3', 'Z4'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['Z1', 'Z2', 'Z3', 'Z4','X'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
X = ['X']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def CCDDHNR2018_IRM(seednum=None, **kwargs):
"""
Binary-treatment Interactive-Regression-Model (IRM) generator from
Chernozhukov et al. (2018, App. P), refactored for the SCM framework.
Optional keyword arguments (with defaults)
------------------------------------------
d : int, number of covariates (default 20)
theta : float, causal effect (default 0.5)
R2_d : float, targeted R² for treatment (default 0.5)
R2_y : float, targeted R² for outcome (default 0.5)
corr : float, base correlation ρ in Σ (default 0.5)
"""
# --- Model Parameters ---
d = kwargs.get('d', 20)
theta = kwargs.get('theta', 0.5)
R2_d = kwargs.get('R2_d', 0.5)
R2_y = kwargs.get('R2_y', 0.5)
corr = kwargs.get('corr', 0.5)
# --- Random-Seed Handling ---
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
else:
random.seed(123)
np.random.seed(123)
# --- Pre-calculate Constants and Vectors ---
Sigma = toeplitz(corr ** np.arange(d))
beta = 1.0 / (np.arange(1, d + 1) ** 2)
beta_Sig_beta = beta @ Sigma @ beta
c_d = np.sqrt((np.pi**2 / 3) * R2_d / ((1 - R2_d) * beta_Sig_beta))
c_y = np.sqrt(R2_y / ((1 - R2_y) * beta_Sig_beta))
# --- Structural Equations ---
# Equation for covariates X (exogenous)
def equation_X(noise, **eq_kwargs):
num_samples = eq_kwargs.pop('num_sample')
# Sigma is pre-calculated in the outer scope
return stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean=np.zeros(d), cov=Sigma, size=num_samples)
# Equation for treatment D (binary)
def equation_D(X, noise, **eq_kwargs):
# The noise argument is unused; randomness is from the binomial draw.
# The random seed is set in the outer function.
logits = c_d * (X @ beta)
p = inv_logit(logits)
return np.random.binomial(1, p)
# Equation for outcome Y
def equation_Y(D, X, noise, **eq_kwargs):
# The noise argument corresponds to zeta ~ N(0,1) from the original paper.
return theta * D + c_y * (X @ beta) + noise
# --- SCM Construction ---
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
# Add variables to the SCM object
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1)) # Placeholder noise
scm.add_observed_variable('D', equation_D, ['X'], stats.norm(0, 0.1)) # Placeholder noise
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['D', 'X'], stats.norm(0, 1)) # Noise zeta ~ N(0,1)
# --- Define Treatment and Outcome variables ---
D_vars = ['D']
Y_vars = ['Y']
return [scm, D_vars, Y_vars]
def CCDDHNR2018_PLR(seednum=None, d=20, **kwargs):
"""
Partially-Linear-Regression (PLR) model from Chernozhukov et al. (2018),
rewritten to conform to the SCM framework.
"""
# Model parameters from kwargs
theta = kwargs.get('theta', 0.5)
a0 = kwargs.get('a0', 1.0)
a1 = kwargs.get('a1', 0.25)
b0 = kwargs.get('b0', 1.0)
b1 = kwargs.get('b1', 0.25)
s1 = kwargs.get('s1', 1.0) # std dev for treatment noise
s2 = kwargs.get('s2', 1.0) # std dev for outcome noise
# --- Random-seed handling ---
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
else:
# Maintain original default seed behavior if no seed is provided
random.seed(123)
np.random.seed(123)
# --- Structural Equations ---
# Equation for covariates X (exogenous)
def equation_X(noise, **eq_kwargs):
num_samples = eq_kwargs.pop('num_sample')
Sigma = toeplitz(0.7 ** np.arange(d))
return stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean=np.zeros(d), cov=Sigma, size=num_samples)
# Equation for treatment D
def equation_D(X, noise, **eq_kwargs):
# Nuisance function m0(x) for the treatment
def m0(x):
return a0 * x[..., 0] + a1 * np.exp(x[..., 2]) / (1.0 + np.exp(x[..., 2]))
# D = m0(X) + noise (where noise ~ N(0, s1))
return m0(X) + noise
# Equation for outcome Y
def equation_Y(D, X, noise, **eq_kwargs):
# Nuisance function g0(x) for the outcome
def g0(x):
return b0 * np.exp(x[..., 0]) / (1.0 + np.exp(x[..., 0])) + b1 * x[..., 2]
# Y = theta * D + g0(X) + noise (where noise ~ N(0, s2))
return theta * D + g0(X) + noise
# --- SCM Construction ---
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
# Add variables to the SCM
# Placeholder noise for the exogenous variable X
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
# Treatment D depends on X, with noise Normal(0, s1)
scm.add_observed_variable('D', equation_D, ['X'], stats.norm(0, s1))
# Outcome Y depends on D and X, with noise Normal(0, s2)
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['D', 'X'], stats.norm(0, s2))
# --- Define Treatment and Outcome variables ---
# Per the model's structure, D is the treatment and Y is the outcome.
# Note: The covariate is 'X', while the treatment is 'D'.
D_vars = ['D']
Y_vars = ['Y']
return [scm, D_vars, Y_vars]
def mSBD_SCM_JCI(seednum = None, d=4):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_C(noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.get('num_sample', None)
return stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean = np.zeros(d), cov = np.eye(d), size=num_samples)
def equation_X1(U_X1Z, C, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs = [1,-1,1] + [-(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
prob = inv_logit( 5*np.dot(np.array(coeffs), np.array(C).T ) + U_X1Z + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_Z(U_X1Z, U_ZY, C, X1, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs = [-1,1,-1] + [(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
prob = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeffs), np.array(C).T) + (2*X1-1) * (U_X1Z + 2*U_ZY) + noise )
return prob
def equation_X2(X1, Z, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob = inv_logit( 2*X1-1 + 5*Z + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_Y(U_ZY, C, X1, X2, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs = [1,-1,1] + [-(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
# Convert binary X1, X2 (0,1) to (-1,1) for easier modeling
x1_mod = 2 * X1 - 1
x2_mod = 2 * X2 - 1
# Calculate the linear combination of predictors (the logit)
logit_prob = (
np.dot(np.array(coeffs), np.array(C).T) + # Original effect of confounder C
4 * x1_mod * U_ZY + # Original interaction with unobserved confounder U_ZY
4 * x2_mod * U_ZY + # Original interaction with unobserved confounder U_ZY
5 * x1_mod + # --- NEW: Strong main effect for X1 ---
5 * x2_mod + # --- NEW: Strong main effect for X2 ---
-3 * x1_mod * x2_mod + # --- NEW: Interaction effect between X1 and X2 ---
noise # Noise term
)
prob = inv_logit(logit_prob)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_X1Z', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_ZY', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C', equation_C, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X1', equation_X1, ['U_X1Z', 'C'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z', equation_Z, ['U_X1Z', 'U_ZY', 'C', 'X1'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X2', equation_X2, ['X1', 'Z'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['U_ZY', 'C', 'X1', 'X2'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
X = ['X1', 'X2']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def mSBD_SCM(seednum = None, d=4):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_Z1(noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.get('num_sample', None)
return stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean = np.zeros(d), cov = np.eye(d), size=num_samples)
def equation_X1(Z1, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs = [1,-1,1] + [-(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
prob = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeffs), np.array(Z1).T ) )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_Y1(Z1, X1, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs = [-1,1,-1] + [(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
prob = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeffs), np.array(Z1).T) + 5 * (2*X1-1) + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_Z2(Z1, X1, Y1, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.get('num_sample') # Get num_samples from kwargs
influence = 0.5 * np.mean(Z1, axis=1) + 0.8 * X1 - 0.6 * Y1
mean_Z2 = np.tile(influence.reshape(-1, 1), d)
# --- CORRECTED LINE STARTS HERE ---
# Manually generate the samples, which is efficient and correct.
# This is equivalent to adding standard normal noise to each mean vector.
standard_noise = np.random.standard_normal(size=(num_samples, d))
return mean_Z2 + standard_noise
# --- CORRECTED LINE ENDS HERE ---
def equation_X2(Z1, X1, Y1, Z2, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs_1 = [-1,1,-1] + [(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
coeffs_2 = [1,-1,1] + [-(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
prob = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeffs_1), np.array(Z1).T) + np.dot(np.array(coeffs_2), np.array(Z2).T) - 3 * (2*X1-1) + 2 * Y1 + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_Y2(Z1, X1, Y1, Z2, X2, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs_1 = [1,-1,1] + [-(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
coeffs_2 = [-1,1,-1] + [(i - 2) ** (-2) for i in range(4,d+1)]
prob = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeffs_1), np.array(Z1).T) + np.dot(np.array(coeffs_2), np.array(Z2).T) + 3 * (2*X1-1) + 2 * Y1 + 4 * (2*X2-1) + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_observed_variable('Z1', equation_Z1, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X1', equation_X1, ['Z1'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y1', equation_Y1, ['Z1', 'X1'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z2', equation_Z2, ['Z1', 'X1', 'Y1'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X2', equation_X2, ['Z1', 'X1', 'Y1', 'Z2'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y2', equation_Y2, ['Z1', 'X1', 'Y1', 'Z2', 'X2'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
X = ['X1', 'X2']
Y = ['Y1', 'Y2']
return [scm, X, Y]
def luedtke_2017_sim1_scm(seed=None, **kwargs):
"""
Creates the Structural Causal Model for Simulation 1 from Luedtke et al. (2017).
This function defines the structural equations for a 3-timepoint longitudinal
study and returns the SCM object, treatment variables, and outcome variables.
Args:
seed (int, optional): A seed for the random number generator for
reproducibility. Defaults to None.
Returns:
list: A list containing [scm, treatment_vars, outcome_vars] where:
- scm: The configured StructuralCausalModel object.
- treatment_vars (list): A list of the treatment variable names.
- outcome_vars (list): A list of the outcome variable names.
"""
if seed is not None:
np.random.seed(seed)
# --- Define Structural Equations ---
num_samples = kwargs.get('num_sample', None)
# Time-point t=1
def equation_Z1(noise, **kwargs):
# Z1 = stats.norm.rvs(loc=0, scale=1, size=num_samples)
return noise
def equation_X1(Z1, noise, **kwargs):
prob = expit(Z1)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
# Time-point t=2
def equation_Z2(noise, **kwargs):
# Z2 = stats.norm.rvs(loc=0, scale=1, size=num_samples)
return noise
def equation_X2(Z2, X1, noise, **kwargs):
prob = expit(Z2 + X1)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
# Time-point t=3
def equation_Z3(Z1, X1, Z2, X2, noise, **kwargs):
# L3 ~ Normal(L1*A2 + A1*L2 + L2*A2, 1).
mean_Z3 = Z1 * X2 + X1 * Z2 + Z2 * X2
return mean_Z3 + noise
def equation_X3(Z3, X2, noise, **kwargs):
# A3 ~ Bernoulli(expit(L3 + A2)).
prob = expit(Z3 + X2)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_Y(Z2, X2, Z3, X3, noise, **kwargs):
prob = expit(Z2 * X3 + X2 * Z3 + Z3 * X3)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
# --- SCM Construction ---
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
# Time-point 1
scm.add_observed_variable('Z1', equation_Z1, [], stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X1', equation_X1, ['Z1'], stats.norm(0, 0.1)) # Placeholder noise
# Time-point 2
scm.add_observed_variable('Z2', equation_Z2, [], stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X2', equation_X2, ['Z2', 'X1'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
# Time-point 3
scm.add_observed_variable('Z3', equation_Z3, ['Z1', 'X1', 'Z2', 'X2'], stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X3', equation_X3, ['Z3', 'X2'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['Z2', 'X2', 'Z3', 'X3'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
# --- Define Treatment and Outcome variables ---
# The treatments are the time-varying actions A_t.
# The final outcome of interest is Y3.
treatments = ['X1', 'X2', 'X3']
outcomes = ['Y']
return [scm, treatments, outcomes]
def Fulcher_FD(seednum = None):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_C1(noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
C1 = np.random.binomial(1, 0.6, num_samples)
return C1
def equation_C2(C1, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_C2 = inv_logit(1 + 0.5 * C1)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_C2)
def equation_C3(noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
C3 = np.random.binomial(1, 0.3, num_samples)
return C3
def equation_X(C1, C2, C3, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_X = inv_logit( 0.5 + 0.2 * C1 + 0.4 * C2 + 0.5 * C1 * C2 + 0.2 * C3 )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_X)
def equation_Z(C1, C2, X, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_Z = inv_logit( 1 + X - 2*C1 + 2*C2 + 8*C1*C2 + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Z)
def equation_Y(C1, C2, C3, Z, X, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_Y = inv_logit( 1 + 2*X + 2*Z - 8*X*Z + 3*C1 + C2 + C1*C2 + C3 + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Y)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_observed_variable('C1', equation_C1, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C2', equation_C2, ['C1'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C3', equation_C3, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['C1', 'C2', 'C3'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z', equation_Z, ['C1', 'C2', 'X'], stats.norm(0, 4))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['C1', 'C2', 'C3', 'Z', 'X'], stats.norm(0, 1))
X = ['X']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def Canonical_FD_SCM(seednum = None):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_C(U_CX, U_CY, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
C = np.abs( np.random.normal(0,1,size=num_samples) )
return C
def equation_X(U_XY, U_CX, C, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_X = inv_logit( 0.5 * C + U_XY + U_CX + np.abs( np.random.normal(0,1,size=num_samples) ) )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_X)
def equation_Z(C, X, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_Z = inv_logit( 0.5 * C + 2*X - 1 + np.abs( np.random.normal(0,1,size=num_samples) ) )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Z)
def equation_Y(U_XY, U_CY, C, Z, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_Y = inv_logit( 0.5 * C + 2*Z - 1 + U_XY + U_CY + np.abs( np.random.normal(0,1,size=num_samples) ) )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Y)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_CX', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_CY', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_XY', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C', equation_C, ['U_CX', 'U_CY'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['U_XY', 'U_CX', 'C'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z', equation_Z, ['C', 'X'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['U_XY', 'U_CY', 'C', 'Z'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
X = ['X']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def FD_SCM(seednum = None, dC = 3, dZ = 2):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_C(U_CX, U_CY, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
first_column = [2**(-abs(j - 0) - 1) for j in range(dC)]
first_row = [2**(-abs(0 - k) - 1) for k in range(dC)]
toeplitz_matrix = toeplitz(first_column, first_row)
C = stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean = np.zeros(dC), cov = toeplitz_matrix, size=num_samples)
C = C.reshape(num_samples, dC)
for didx in range(dC):
C_idx_val = inv_logit( C[:,didx] + U_CX + U_CY + 2 )
C[:,didx] = np.random.binomial(1, C_idx_val)
return C
def equation_X(U_XY, U_CX, C, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeff_X = [-(i) ** (-2) for i in range(1, dC + 1)]
prob_X = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeff_X), np.array(C).T) + U_XY - 0.5*U_CX + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_X)
def equation_Z(C, X, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
first_column = [2**(-abs(j - 0) - 1) for j in range(dZ)]
first_row = [2**(-abs(0 - k) - 1) for k in range(dZ)]
toeplitz_matrix = toeplitz(first_column, first_row)
Z = stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean = np.zeros(dZ), cov = toeplitz_matrix, size=num_samples)
Z = Z.reshape(num_samples, dZ)
coeff_Z = [-(i) ** (-2) for i in range(1, dC + 1)]
for didx in range(dZ):
prob_Z = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeff_Z), np.array(C).T) + Z[:,didx] + (2*X-1) + noise )
Z[:,didx] = np.random.binomial(1, prob_Z)
return Z
def equation_Y(U_XY, U_CY, C, Z, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeff_C = [-(i) ** (-2) for i in range(1, dC + 1)]
coeff_Z = [-(i+1) ** (-2) for i in range(1, dZ + 1)]
prob_Y = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeff_Z), np.array(Z).T) + np.dot(np.array(coeff_C), np.array(C).T) + 1.5 * U_XY - 0.5*U_CY + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Y)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_CX', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_CY', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_XY', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C', equation_C, ['U_CX', 'U_CY'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['U_XY', 'U_CX', 'C'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z', equation_Z, ['C', 'X'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['U_XY', 'U_CY', 'C', 'Z'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
X = ['X']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def Bhattacharya2022_Fig2b_SCM(seednum=None, **kwargs):
"""
Python implementation of the data generating process for the ADMG in Figure 2(b)
[cite_start]from Bhattacharya, Nabi, and Shpitser (2022, Appendix G)[cite: 1128, 1129, 1130, 1131, 1132].
"""
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
# --- Structural Equations for Hidden Variables (U) ---
# These are defined by their distributions and added to the SCM.
# --- Structural Equations for Observed Variables ---
def equation_C1(noise, **kwargs): return np.random.binomial(1, 0.3, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_C2(noise, **kwargs): return np.random.uniform(-1, 2, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_C3(noise, **kwargs): return np.random.normal(1, 1, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_X(C1, C2, C3, U1, U2, U3, noise, **kwargs):
C4 = stats.norm.cdf(C3)
C5 = C3**C1 + (1 - C1) * np.sin(np.abs(C3) * np.pi)
C6 = C1 * C2 + np.abs(C3)
logits = 0.5 + 0.9 * C4 - 0.5 * C5 + 0.2 * C6 + 0.3 * U1 - 0.8 * U2 + 0.8 * U3
prob = expit(logits)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_M(C1, C2, C3, X, U4, U5, U6, noise, **kwargs):
C4 = stats.norm.cdf(C3)
C5 = C3**C1 + (1 - C1) * np.sin(np.abs(C3) * np.pi)
C6 = C1 * C2 + np.abs(C3)
logits = (0.5 - 0.7*C1 + 0.8*C2 - C3 - 1.2*X - 0.2*U4 + 0.5*U5 + 0.4*U6
+ (1.5*C4 + 1.2*C5 + 0.6*C6) * X)
prob = expit(logits)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_L(C1, C2, C3, M, X, U1, U2, U3, noise, **kwargs):
# Note: L depends on T through M. Added T to parents for clarity.
C4 = stats.norm.cdf(C3)
C5 = C3**C1 + (1 - C1) * np.sin(np.abs(C3) * np.pi)
C6 = C1 * C2 + np.abs(C3)
logits = (-0.5*X + 0.8*C4 + 1.2*C5 - 0.6*C6 - 1.2*M + 0.3*U1 + 0.6*U2 - 0.4*U3
- (0.8*C4 + 1.5*C5 + 0.4*C6) * M)
prob = expit(logits)
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_Y(C1, C2, C3, X, L, U4, U5, U6, noise, **kwargs):
C4 = stats.norm.cdf(C3)
C5 = C3**C1 + (1 - C1) * np.sin(np.abs(C3) * np.pi)
C6 = C1 * C2 + np.abs(C3)
mean = (0.5 + 0.5*C4 - 2*C5 + 0.8*C6 + 0.5*X + 0.6*L - 0.6*U4 + 0.5*U5
- 0.5*U6 + 1.3*C4*X + 2.3*C5*L + 2*C6*X*L + 1.2*X*L)
return mean + noise
# --- SCM Construction ---
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
# Add unobserved (hidden) variables
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U1', stats.bernoulli(0.4))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U2', stats.uniform(0, 1.5))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U3', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U4', stats.bernoulli(0.6))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U5', stats.uniform(-1, 2)) # scale = 1 - (-1) = 2
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U6', stats.norm(0, 1.5))
# Add observed variables
scm.add_observed_variable('C1', equation_C1, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1)) # Placeholder noise
scm.add_observed_variable('C2', equation_C2, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C3', equation_C3, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['C1', 'C2', 'C3', 'U1', 'U2', 'U3'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('M', equation_M, ['C1', 'C2', 'C3', 'X', 'U4', 'U5', 'U6'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('L', equation_L, ['C1', 'C2', 'C3', 'M', 'X', 'U1', 'U2', 'U3'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['C1', 'C2', 'C3', 'X', 'L', 'U4', 'U5', 'U6'], stats.norm(0, 1.5))
X = ['X']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def Bhattacharya2022_Fig3_SCM(seednum=None, **kwargs):
"""
Python implementation for the ADMG in Figure 3 from Bhattacharya et al. (2022).
- Treatment is named 'X'.
- Unmeasured confounders are named 'U_#'.
"""
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
# --- Structural Equations for Observed Variables ---
def equation_C11(noise, **kwargs): return np.random.normal(1, 1, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_C12(noise, **kwargs): return np.random.uniform(-1, 1, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_C21(noise, **kwargs): return np.random.normal(0, 1, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_C22(noise, **kwargs): return np.random.binomial(1, 0.4, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_X(C11, C12, C21, C22, U_1, U_2, U_3, noise, **kwargs):
C3 = stats.norm.cdf(C11 * C12) + (1 - C12) * np.sin(np.abs(C11) * np.pi)
C4 = (C21**C22) + (1 - C22) * np.sin(np.abs(C21) * np.pi)
logits = (-0.5 + 0.9*C11 - 0.7*C12 + 0.6*C21 - 0.7*C22 + 0.3*U_1 - 0.5*U_2
+ 0.4*U_3 + 1.6*C3 - 0.8*C4)
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(logits))
def equation_M(C21, C22, X, noise, **kwargs):
C4 = (C21**C22) + (1 - C22) * np.sin(np.abs(C21) * np.pi)
logits = -0.5 - 1.4*C21 + 1.3*C22 - 1.2*X + 2.2*C4*X - C4
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(logits))
def equation_L(C11, C12, C21, C22, M, U_1, U_2, U_3, noise, **kwargs):
C3 = stats.norm.cdf(C11 * C12) + (1 - C12) * np.sin(np.abs(C11) * np.pi)
C4 = (C21**C22) + (1 - C22) * np.sin(np.abs(C21) * np.pi)
logits = (0.5 - 0.5*C11 - 0.4*C12 + 0.8*C21 + 0.9*C22 - 1.2*M + 0.3*U_1
+ 0.6*U_2 - 0.4*U_3 - 1.8*C3*M - 1.5*C4*M + 1.2*C3 + 0.8*C4)
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(logits))
def equation_Y(C21, C22, L, noise, **kwargs):
C4 = (C21**C22) + (1 - C22) * np.sin(np.abs(C21) * np.pi)
mean = 0.5 + 0.7*C21 - 0.5*C22 + 1.6*L + 1.1*C4*L + 0.8*C4
return mean + noise
# --- SCM Construction ---
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_1', stats.bernoulli(0.4))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_2', stats.uniform(0, 1.5))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_3', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C11', equation_C11, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C12', equation_C12, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C21', equation_C21, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C22', equation_C22, [], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['C11', 'C12', 'C21', 'C22', 'U_1', 'U_2', 'U_3'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('M', equation_M, ['C21', 'C22', 'X'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('L', equation_L, ['C11', 'C12', 'C21', 'C22', 'M', 'U_1', 'U_2', 'U_3'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['C21', 'C22', 'L'], stats.norm(0, 1.5))
treatment = ['X']
outcome = ['Y']
return [scm, treatment, outcome]
def Napkin_SCM(seednum = None):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_W(U_WX, U_WY, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_W = inv_logit( 3*U_WX * U_WY + noise + U_WX)
return prob_W
# return np.random.binomial(1, prob_W)
def equation_R(W, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
binary_W = inv_logit(W)
prob_R = inv_logit( binary_W*(2+noise) + (1-binary_W)*(-2-noise) + 2*W )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_R)
def equation_X(R, U_WX, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_X = inv_logit( R*(2 + U_WX) + (1-R) * (-2 - U_WX) + 5*(2*R-1))
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_X)
def equation_Y(X, U_WY, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_Y = inv_logit( X*(2 + U_WY) + (1-X) * (-2 - U_WY) + 2*U_WY*(2*X-1))
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Y)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_WX', stats.norm(3, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_WY', stats.norm(-2, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('W', equation_W, ['U_WX', 'U_WY'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('R', equation_R, ['W'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['R', 'U_WX'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['X', 'U_WY'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
X = ['X']
Y = ['Y']
return [scm, X, Y]
def Bhattacharya2022_Fig5_SCM(seednum=None, **kwargs):
"""
Python implementation for the ADMG in Figure 5 from Bhattacharya et al. (2022).
- Treatment is named 'X'.
- Unmeasured confounders are named 'U_#'.
"""
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
# --- Structural Equations ---
def equation_C1(U_7, U_8, U_9, U_10, noise, **kwargs):
return 0.4*U_7 - 0.1*U_8 + 0.6*U_9 + 0.8*U_10 + noise
def equation_C2(U_7, U_8, U_9, U_10, noise, **kwargs):
return -0.3*U_7 - 0.7*U_8 + 0.8*U_9 + 1.2*U_10 + noise
def equation_R2(U_1, U_2, U_3, U_4, noise, **kwargs):
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(-0.2 + 0.3*U_1 - 0.8*U_2 + 0.4*U_3 + 0.6*U_4))
def equation_Z(U_1, U_2, U_5, U_6, noise, **kwargs):
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(-0.5 + U_1 + 0.2*U_2 - 0.8*U_5 + 0.3*U_6))
def equation_X(C1, C2, Z, U_3, U_4, noise, **kwargs):
C3 = np.abs(C1 * C2)**0.5 + np.sin(np.abs(C1 + C2) * np.pi)
C4 = stats.norm.cdf(C1)
logits = 0.5 - 0.5*C1 + 0.5*C2 + 0.3*Z + 0.5*U_3 - 0.4*U_4 + 0.8*C3 - 1.3*C4
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(logits))
def equation_R1(X, U_5, U_6, noise, **kwargs):
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(0.2 + 0.7*X - 0.6*U_5 - 0.6*U_6))
def equation_M(R1, U_7, U_8, noise, **kwargs):
return np.random.binomial(1, expit(0.5 - 0.8*R1 + 1.2*U_7 - 1.5*U_8))
def equation_Y(C1, C2, X, M, R2, U_9, U_10, noise, **kwargs):
C3 = np.abs(C1 * C2)**0.5 + np.sin(np.abs(C1 + C2) * np.pi)
C4 = stats.norm.cdf(C1)
mean = (-1 + 0.5*C1 + 0.2*C2 + 1.2*X + 0.8*R2 + 0.8*M + 0.2*U_9 - 0.4*U_10
+ 0.8*C3 - 1.2*C4 + M*X)
return mean + noise
# --- SCM Construction ---
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
ps = [0.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3]
for i, p in zip(range(1, 10, 2), ps): scm.add_unobserved_variable(f'U_{i}', stats.bernoulli(p))
for i in range(2, 11, 2): scm.add_unobserved_variable(f'U_{i}', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C1', equation_C1, ['U_7', 'U_8', 'U_9', 'U_10'], stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('C2', equation_C2, ['U_7', 'U_8', 'U_9', 'U_10'], stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('R2', equation_R2, ['U_1', 'U_2', 'U_3', 'U_4'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Z', equation_Z, ['U_1', 'U_2', 'U_5', 'U_6'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['C1', 'C2', 'Z', 'U_3', 'U_4'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('R1', equation_R1, ['X', 'U_5', 'U_6'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('M', equation_M, ['R1', 'U_7', 'U_8'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['C1', 'C2', 'X', 'M', 'R2', 'U_9', 'U_10'], stats.norm(0, 1))
treatment = ['X']
outcome = ['Y']
return [scm, treatment, outcome]
def ConeCloud_15_SCM(seednum=None, **kwargs):
"""
An example Structural Causal Model for the 15-node Cone Cloud graph
from Figure 3b of Bhattacharya et al. (2022).
- Treatment (Intervention): X = V10
- Outcome: Y = V4
- Observable variables are categorical with a domain size of 4.
- Unmeasured confounders (U_*) represent the bidirected edges.
"""
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
# Helper function to generate categorical variables
def generate_categorical(logits, num_samples):
if logits.ndim == 1:
logits = np.tile(logits, (4, 1)).T
probabilities = softmax(logits, axis=1)
return np.array([np.random.choice(4, p=p_row) for p_row in probabilities])
# --- Structural Equations ---
# Central node
def equation_V5(noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.get('num_sample')
logits = np.tile(noise.reshape(-1, 1), (1, 4))
return generate_categorical(logits, num_samples)
# Nodes dependent on V5
def equation_V3(V5, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.8 * V5 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V8(V5, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.7 * V5 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V6(V5, U_1_6, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.5 * V5 + 1.2 * U_1_6 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V7(V5, U_2_7, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.6 * V5 + 1.1 * U_2_7 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V9(V5, U_13_9, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.4 * V5 + 1.3 * U_13_9 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V11(V5, U_12_11, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.55 * V5 + 1.4 * U_12_11 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
# Outer layer nodes
def equation_V1(V3, U_1_6, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.9 * V3 + 0.8 * U_1_6 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V2(V3, U_2_7, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.85 * V3 + 0.9 * U_2_7 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V13(V8, U_13_9, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.75 * V8 + 0.7 * U_13_9 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_V12(V8, U_12_11, noise, **kwargs):
logits = 0.95 * V8 + 0.6 * U_12_11 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
# Treatment and Outcome variables
def equation_X1(V9, V11, U_10_4, noise, **kwargs): # Previously V4
logits = 0.7 * V9 + 0.6 * V11 + 2.0 * U_10_4 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_X2(V6, V7, U_10_4, noise, **kwargs): # Previously V10
logits = 0.6 * V6 + 0.5 * V7 - 1.2 * U_10_4 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_X3(V12, V13, U_0_14, noise, **kwargs): # Previously V14
logits = 0.5 * V12 + 0.3 * V13 + 1.5 * U_0_14 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
def equation_Y(V1, V2, U_0_14, noise, **kwargs): # Previously V0
logits = 0.4 * V1 + 0.4 * V2 + 1.5 * U_0_14 + noise
return generate_categorical(logits, kwargs.get('num_sample'))
# --- SCM Construction ---
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
# Add unobserved variables for bidirected edges
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_0_14', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_10_4', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_1_6', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_2_7', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_13_9', stats.norm(0, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_12_11', stats.norm(0, 1))
# Add observed variables in a plausible topological order
scm.add_observed_variable('V5', equation_V5, [], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V3', equation_V3, ['V5'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V8', equation_V8, ['V5'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V6', equation_V6, ['V5', 'U_1_6'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V7', equation_V7, ['V5', 'U_2_7'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V9', equation_V9, ['V5', 'U_13_9'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V11', equation_V11, ['V5', 'U_12_11'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V1', equation_V1, ['V3', 'U_1_6'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V2', equation_V2, ['V3', 'U_2_7'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V13', equation_V13, ['V8', 'U_13_9'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('V12', equation_V12, ['V8', 'U_12_11'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('X1', equation_X1, ['V9', 'V11', 'U_10_4'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('X2', equation_X2, ['V6', 'V7', 'U_10_4'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('X3', equation_X3, ['V12', 'V13', 'U_0_14'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['V1', 'V2', 'U_0_14'], stats.norm(0, 0.5))
treatments = ['X1', 'X2', 'X3']
outcomes = ['Y']
return [scm, treatments, outcomes]
def Napkin_SCM_dim(seednum = None, d=5):
if seednum is not None:
random.seed(int(seednum))
np.random.seed(seednum)
def equation_W(U_WX, U_WY, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
first_column = [2**(-abs(j - 0) - 1) for j in range(d)]
first_row = [2**(-abs(0 - k) - 1) for k in range(d)]
toeplitz_matrix = toeplitz(first_column, first_row)
base_matrix = stats.multivariate_normal.rvs(mean = np.zeros(d), cov = toeplitz_matrix, size=num_samples)
coef_U1 = np.random.randn(d) # or use np.random.rand(d) for [0,1] uniform coefficients
coef_U2 = np.random.randn(d)
constants = np.random.randn(d)
U_WX = np.asarray(U_WX).reshape(num_samples, 1)
U_WY = np.asarray(U_WY).reshape(num_samples, 1)
additional_matrix = (U_WX * coef_U1) + (U_WY * coef_U2) + constants
W = base_matrix + additional_matrix
return W
def equation_R(W, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
coeffs = [-(i) ** (-2) for i in range(1,d+1)]
prob = inv_logit( np.dot(np.array(coeffs), np.array(W).T ) + noise )
return np.random.binomial(1, prob)
def equation_X(R, U_WX, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_X = inv_logit( R*(2 + U_WX) + (1-R) * (-2 - U_WX))
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_X)
def equation_Y(X, U_WY, noise, **kwargs):
num_samples = kwargs.pop('num_sample')
prob_Y = inv_logit( X*(2 + U_WY) + (1-X) * (-2 - U_WY))
return np.random.binomial(1, prob_Y)
scm = StructuralCausalModel()
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_WX', stats.norm(3, 1))
scm.add_unobserved_variable('U_WY', stats.norm(-2, 1))
scm.add_observed_variable('W', equation_W, ['U_WX', 'U_WY'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('R', equation_R, ['W'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('X', equation_X, ['R', 'U_WX'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))
scm.add_observed_variable('Y', equation_Y, ['X', 'U_WY'], stats.norm(0, 0.1))