diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 6fea91a..d8c101a 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -252,17 +252,14 @@ python scripts/build_tech_communication_pullback_snapshot.py \ SOXL/SOXX trend-income 的 research backtest 可以使用本地价格数据运行。默认研究路径会构建 runtime 策略使用的 SOXX RSI 和 Bollinger-band 输入;也可以通过动态 RSI 分位、Chandelier-style delever overlay 等参数研究替代保护机制。Chandelier overlay 默认关闭,只在研究回测中把触发日的 SOXL target value reroute 到 BOXX,不改变生产 manifest。初始研究说明见 `docs/soxl-soxx-chandelier-stop-research.md`。 -To research alternative SOXL delever gates without changing production, use -`--soxl-delever-overlay volatility|drawdown|momentum|dual_ma` with -`--soxl-delever-symbol`, `--soxl-delever-window`, -`--soxl-delever-fast-window`, `--soxl-delever-slow-window`, -`--soxl-delever-threshold`, `--soxl-delever-retention-ratio`, and -`--soxl-delever-redirect-symbol`. The `dual_ma` option is research-only and can -model variants such as SOXL `10/30` partial retention redirected into SOXX. The -current promoted production gate is a SOXX 10-day volatility gate at `0.50` that -redirects SOXL into SOXX. See -`docs/tqqq-soxl-optimization-research.md` for the TQQQ/SOXL no-regression -optimization sweep. +如需在不改生产配置的情况下研究替代 SOXL 降杠杆门,可以使用 +`--soxl-delever-overlay volatility|drawdown|momentum|dual_ma`,并配合 +`--soxl-delever-symbol`、`--soxl-delever-window`、 +`--soxl-delever-fast-window`、`--soxl-delever-slow-window`、 +`--soxl-delever-threshold`、`--soxl-delever-retention-ratio` 和 +`--soxl-delever-redirect-symbol`。`dual_ma` 用于研究 SOXL/SOXX 双均线减仓, +例如 `10/30` 减半转 `SOXX`,默认不启用。当前实盘门槛固定为 `SOXX` 10 日年化实际波动率 +`>= 55%` 时把 `SOXL` 转向 `SOXX`。 For long-history core SOXL/SOXX validation, provide a BOXX-compatible cash proxy such as BIL under the `BOXX` symbol and add `--disable-income-layer`. diff --git a/docs/soxl-soxx-chandelier-stop-research.md b/docs/soxl-soxx-chandelier-stop-research.md index c510fcb..21b5654 100644 --- a/docs/soxl-soxx-chandelier-stop-research.md +++ b/docs/soxl-soxx-chandelier-stop-research.md @@ -3,6 +3,11 @@ Status: research-only as of 2026-05-10. Do not promote this overlay into the runtime strategy without a separate evidence review and explicit approval. +Current-policy note: the 50% volatility-gate result below is historical +research evidence. The current runtime default redirects SOXL into SOXX when +SOXX 10d realized volatility is at least 55%. See +`docs/tqqq-soxl-optimization-research.md` for the broader optimization record. + ## Question Can a Chandelier-style stop reduce SOXL crash exposure without damaging the @@ -73,7 +78,8 @@ Families tested: - SOXL retention ratios of `0%`, `25%`, `50%`, and `75%`. - Redirect targets of `BOXX` and `SOXX`. -The only clean common winner in the exact replay was a SOXX volatility gate: +At the time, the only clean common winner in the exact replay was a SOXX +volatility gate: ```bash --soxl-delever-overlay volatility \ diff --git a/docs/tqqq-soxl-optimization-research.md b/docs/tqqq-soxl-optimization-research.md index 94e3837..03568f4 100644 --- a/docs/tqqq-soxl-optimization-research.md +++ b/docs/tqqq-soxl-optimization-research.md @@ -3,8 +3,7 @@ Research date: 2026-05-10 Promotion note: the current production SOXL/SOXX volatility delever gate uses -`SOXX 10d realized volatility >= 50%, SOXL -> SOXX`, promoted from the exact -real-product replay in `soxl-soxx-chandelier-stop-research.md`. The synthetic +`SOXX 10d realized volatility >= 55%, SOXL -> SOXX`. The older synthetic long-history sweep below remains the historical optimization record. This note records a bounded optimization sweep for the TQQQ and SOXL leveraged @@ -94,10 +93,11 @@ Passing candidates: Selected `BOXX` redirect variants improved full-sample CAGR and drawdown, but failed the strict no-CAGR-regression rule in at least one window. -Conclusion: the strongest SOXL research candidate is the 20-day SOXX -realized-volatility gate at 50%, redirecting triggered SOXL target exposure into -SOXX. It passed this bounded sweep, but should remain research-only until a -separate PR promotes it with implementation tests and operator review. +Historical conclusion from this sweep: the strongest candidate in that older +synthetic run was the 20-day SOXX realized-volatility gate at 50%, redirecting +triggered SOXL target exposure into SOXX. Later exact-replay and income-layer +work did not promote that older 50% threshold; the current production default is +the 10-day 55% SOXX realized-volatility gate, redirecting SOXL into SOXX. ## Local Research Outputs