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[Feature] V2: economic simulation for registration/reveal windows, minimum bond, and whale-capture risk #75

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@collinsezedike

Summary

V2's parameters (registration duration, reveal duration, minimum resolution bond, anti-sniping extension) are currently reasoned about qualitatively in docs/src/V2_RESOLUTION.md, not modeled quantitatively. This is a research/design issue, not implementation: model the tradeoffs before picking real deployment defaults.

Scope

  • Model default frequency: given plausible turnout distributions, how often does a genuinely wrong assertion survive via the optimistic timeout default purely because turnout was too low? (This is the same dynamic worked through in [Feature] V2: implement weighted-majority outcome resolution #68's issue body, e.g. 49% revealed against, 50% non-reveal, assertion still stands.)
  • Model whale-capture risk: at what concentration of eligible capital does a single address or coalition reliably reach strict majority on a typical-sized dispute, given the minimum resolution bond from [Feature] V2: implement PolicySnapshot and versioned assertion state #64?
  • Model window-length tradeoffs: how does registration/reveal duration trade off against genuine participation (longer windows let more people join, but delay resolution and give more time for coordinated capture).
  • Recommend concrete starting parameter values, following the same profile-based approach docs/src/BOND_SIZING.md already established for v1 (private beta / public testnet / higher-value mainnet candidate).
  • Output: a new docs/src/V2_BOND_SIZING.md (or an extension of the existing one) with the model and recommended profiles, in the same style as the v1 document.

Depends on

Conceptually depends on #64's parameter list existing, but can proceed in parallel with implementation since this is modeling, not code against a live contract.

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enhancementNew feature or requestspikeResearch or design-only, no implementation

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