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45 changes: 45 additions & 0 deletions docs/ats/ty2025-check-expansion-2026-10-10.md
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# ATS Scenario 3 and 4 check expansion — October 10, 2026

The individual-check projection remains **about 75%, with a low-confidence judgment range of 50–85%**. The expanded selected calculation sample has **40/54 evaluated nonprovisional matches (74.1%)**. Five provisional matches and four unproduced amounts remain separate. This is not a measured percentage of all IRS checks; the complete applicable denominator remains open.

This completes enumeration and replay of nine additional expectations already documented in the Scenario 3 and 4 source reconciliations. All 111 observations from the [earlier checkpoint](./ty2025-check-ledger-2026-10-10.md) are preserved byte-for-byte as JSON objects. No fixture, calculation runtime, prior target or deferred repair changed.

| Evidence | Match/present | Different/missing | Unknown |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Selected calculations (63) | 45 | 14 | 4 unproduced |
| Nonprovisional subset (58) | 40 | 14 | 4 unproduced |
| Native copies (56) | 10 | 12 | 34 unevaluated |
| Known binary attachments (1) | 0 | 1 | Requirements uninventoried for 7 scenarios |

There are now 120 observations, without a combined percentage across unlike categories. The broader calculation sample is 45/63 (71.4%) when provisional and unproduced checks share the denominator; the nonprovisional inventory including unproduced amounts is 40/58 (69.0%). These are different denominators, not alternative claims of IRS acceptance.

## Added expectations

| Scenario | Field | Expected | Actual | Result | Source |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| 1040-03 | `schedule_d.print_line7_st_total` | 1988 | 1988 | match | source-arithmetic: Schedule D p.9:14,222 proceeds less12,234 basis |
| 1040-03 | `schedule_d.print_line15_lt_total` | 9725 | 9725 | match | source-arithmetic: Schedule D p.9:14,211 proceeds less4,486 basis |
| 1040-03 | `f1040.line7_capital_gain` | 11713 | 11713 | match | source-arithmetic: Schedule D p.9:1,988 short-term plus9,725 long-term |
| 1040-03 | `schedule1.line5_schedule_e` | 11061 | 11061 | match | source-arithmetic: Form4835 p.17:17,035 income less5,974 expenses |
| 1040-03 | `schedule1.line1_state_refund` | 3110 | not produced | not-produced | printed-source: Cover sheet p.1 taxable state refund |
| 1040-03 | `f1040.line8_additional_income` | 17422 | 14312 | different | source-arithmetic: Cover/Sch F/Form4835:3,110 refund +3,251 farm +11,061 rental |
| 1040-03 | `f1040.line9_total_income` | 72235 | 69125 | different | source-arithmetic: 43,100 taxable pension +11,713 capital gain +17,422 additional income |
| 1040-04 | `f3800.f8835_credit_entries.0.credit_amount` | 13200 | not produced | not-produced | printed-source: Form3800 line1f; source eligibility and line placement unresolved |
| 1040-04 | `f3800.f8936_new_vehicle_credit.credit_amount` | 130 | not produced | not-produced | printed-source: Form3800 line1y; Form8936 business computation blank |

Scenario 3 capital gains and farm rental income reconcile. Its partial fixture already documents the missing gross refund, issuer and prior-year recovery workpaper; the cover's taxable refund of $3,110 is not supplied to the public 1099-G route. Both income differences equal that missing amount, rather than two independent calculation defects. This checkpoint exposes the incomplete fixture without fabricating source facts or repairing it.

Scenario 4's printed $13,200 solar and $130 vehicle amounts are credit-source deposits, not asserted allowed credits. The existing fixture remains wages-only. Solar ownership, transfer evidence and conflicting Form 3800 line placement remain unresolved; the vehicle business-use computation is blank. A printed target alone does not establish eligibility. Its transfer statement remains missing.

These are previously recorded source gaps, not newly discovered production defects. The existing ATS matrix task remains open, as do all 52 main tasks; 149 deferred tasks remain untouched. No additional native or PDF verification is claimed.

## Evidence and reproduction

```sh
deno run -A forms/f1040/e2e/ats/ty2025-check-ledger.ts /tmp/ats-check-ledger.json
deno test -A forms/f1040/e2e/ats
```

The complete ATS directory passes 73 typed tests, zero failed or ignored. Assertions now retain the two income differences and three newly enumerated missing amounts, alongside the prior document/attachment guards. Private replay, log and hashes: `.state/research/ats-check-expansion-2026-10-10/`. Production runtime remains `d65263134ac90359d42487d85efb05febb13daf6`.

Source facts are retained in the existing Scenario 3 and 4 input/reconciliation modules and their tests, transcribed from the [official Scenario 3 packet](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/ty25-1040-mef-ats-scenario-3-10202025.pdf) and [official Scenario 4 packet](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/ty25-1040-mef-ats-scenario-4-10212025.pdf). This expansion uses those reviewed transcriptions; it does not claim a new visual review.
205 changes: 205 additions & 0 deletions docs/ats/ty2025-check-ledger-2026-10-10.md
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# TY2025 individual-check evidence ledger — October 10, 2026

Historical 111-observation checkpoint; the [expanded 120-observation replay](./ty2025-check-expansion-2026-10-10.md) preserves every row and adds nine source expectations.

**Provisional engineering estimate: about75% of individual ATS checks, with a
judgment range50–85%.** Confidence is low because the complete applicable IRS
check denominator has not been enumerated. This is a projection anchored to
selected calculations, not a measured IRS pass rate or a probability that all
eight scenarios pass. The range is not a statistical confidence interval.

The current replay is unchanged:41 matching,12 different and one unproduced
calculation out of54. Five matches use a provisional Scenario8 interpretation.
Leaving those five conditional matches and the one unproduced amount separate
gives **36/48 evaluated nonprovisional comparisons matching (75%)**. Including
the unproduced amount in that inventory gives36/49 (73.5%); the broader selected
sample gives41/54 (75.9%). These denominators are explicit, not interchangeable.

The previous60% estimate applied an undocumented discount for unresolved
requirements. This checkpoint removes that unsupported weighting; **it does not
claim a15-point software improvement**. Unverified requirements are not assigned
automatic failures or successes. The75% projection uses the selected calculation
anchor as a provisional proxy; identity, native/PDF, attachments and IRS-rule
coverage could materially change it when actually enumerated and evaluated.

| Evidence category | Matching/present | Different/missing | Unknown | Scope |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Selected calculations | 41 | 12 | 1 unproduced | Includes5 provisional matches |
| Nonprovisional calculation subset | 36 | 12 | 1 unproduced | Subset of the54, not additional checks |
| Required native copies | 10 | 12 | 34 not evaluated | Presence only; a blocked bundle is not proof of missing copies |
| Inventoried binary attachments | 0 | 1 | Other requirements not inventoried for7 scenarios | Scenario4 transfer statement absent |

The ledger contains **111 distinct local observations**:54 calculations,
56 document copies and one known attachment. There is deliberately **no combined
111-row pass percentage**: a form's presence and a calculation equality are
different evidence, and this catalog is not the full IRS denominator. Unmapped
roots, absent amounts and uninventoried attachments remain explicit in the
machine report. Additional scopes are listed there without invented counts.

| Calculation target basis | Match | Different | Unproduced |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Printed source | 23 | 12 | 1 |
| Independently derived source arithmetic | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Provisional interpretation | 5 | 0 | 0 |

This uneven mix is why the observed75% cannot be treated as a representative
measurement of all IRS checks.

All12 calculation differences are against printed targets in Scenarios12/13.
They remain differences; some are documented current-law/printed-answer
conflicts, not established code defects. No expected value or tax runtime was
changed to improve this percentage. The original
[replay report](./ty2025-check-replay-2026-10-09.md) retains source explanations.

## Reproduce

```sh
deno run -A forms/f1040/e2e/ats/ty2025-check-ledger.ts /tmp/ats-check-ledger.json
deno test -A forms/f1040/e2e/ats
```

The CLI obtains a fresh public-entry replay, emits one uniquely identified row
per observation, preserves repeated document-copy ordinals and keeps blocked
copies unknown. Its calculation anchor excludes provisional comparisons and
returns no percentage for an empty evaluated set. The full ATS directory passes73 typed tests, zero failures or ignored cases.
The regression checks retain all original54 targets and assert the ledger's partition and duplicate-W2
handling. Private evidence: `.state/research/ats-check-ledger-2026-10-10/`.

## Calculation observations

| Scenario | Field | Expected | Actual | Result | Basis / source location |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| 1040-01 | `f1040.line1a_wages` | 42470 | 42470 | match | source-arithmetic: Issued W-2 box 1, excluding statutory employee receipts |
| 1040-01 | `f1040.line25a_w2_withheld` | 2713 | 2713 | match | source-arithmetic: Sum of issued W-2 box 2 amounts |
| 1040-01 | `schedule2.line9_household_employment` | 474 | 474 | match | source-arithmetic: Schedule H: 3,100 × 12.4% rounded + 3,100 × 2.9% rounded |
| 1040-02 | `f1040.line1a_wages` | 8513 | 8513 | match | source-arithmetic: Issued W-2 box 1, excluding statutory employee receipts |
| 1040-02 | `f1040.line25a_w2_withheld` | 1164 | 1164 | match | source-arithmetic: Sum of issued W-2 box 2 amounts |
| 1040-02 | `schedule1.line3_schedule_c` | 26979 | 26979 | match | source-arithmetic: Schedule C: statutory receipts29,513 less expenses2,534 |
| 1040-03 | `f1040.line5a_pension_gross` | 53778 | 53778 | match | printed-source: 1099-R p.4 box1 |
| 1040-03 | `f1040.line5b_pension_taxable` | 43100 | 43100 | match | printed-source: 1099-R p.4 box2a |
| 1040-03 | `f1040.line25b_withheld_1099` | 3405 | 3405 | match | printed-source: 1099-R p.4 box4 |
| 1040-03 | `schedule1.line6_schedule_f` | 3251 | 3251 | match | source-arithmetic: Schedule F pp.13–14:8,111 less4,860 |
| 1040-03 | `schedule2.line4_se_tax` | 827 | 827 | match | source-arithmetic: Farm optional election: rounded2/3 ×8,111 earnings; filed SE component tax |
| 1040-03 | `schedule1.line15_se_deduction` | 414 | 414 | match | source-arithmetic: Half of filed827 SE tax, rounded |
| 1040-04 | `f1040.line1a_wages` | 36014 | 36014 | match | source-arithmetic: Issued W-2 box 1, excluding statutory employee receipts |
| 1040-04 | `f1040.line25a_w2_withheld` | 4581 | 4581 | match | source-arithmetic: Sum of issued W-2 box 2 amounts |
| 1040-05 | `f1040.line1a_wages` | 31232 | 31232 | match | source-arithmetic: Issued W-2 box 1, excluding statutory employee receipts |
| 1040-05 | `f1040.line25a_w2_withheld` | 1754 | 1754 | match | source-arithmetic: Sum of issued W-2 box 2 amounts |
| 1040-05 | `f1040.taxpayer_blind` | true | true | match | printed-source: Form1040 p.2 blindness mark |
| 1040-05 | `f1040.digital_assets` | false | false | match | printed-source: Form1040 p.2 digital-assets No |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line5a_pension_gross` | 20300 | 20300 | match | printed-source: Code G 1099-R gross distribution |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line5b_pension_taxable` | 10300 | 10300 | match | printed-source: Code G 1099-R taxable distribution |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line5c_pension_rollover` | true | true | match | printed-source: Form1040 p.2 line5c |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line6a_ss_gross` | 1000 | 1000 | match | printed-source: Cover sheet Social Security benefits |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line7a_cap_gain_distrib` | 7500 | 7500 | match | printed-source: Cover sheet REIT capital-gain distribution |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line9_total_income` | 17800 | 17800 | match | provisional-source-interpretation: Source-backed provisional interpretation; printed QCD unresolved |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line12a_standard_deduction` | 17350 | 17350 | match | provisional-source-interpretation: MFS taxpayer age72; QCD/source questions unresolved |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line15_taxable_income` | 450 | 450 | match | provisional-source-interpretation: 17,800 less17,350 under provisional interpretation |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line24_total_tax` | 0 | 0 | match | provisional-source-interpretation: Provisional qualified-gain return; not printed acceptance target |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line25b_withheld_1099` | 2555 | 2555 | match | printed-source: Code G 1099-R box4 |
| 1040-08 | `f1040.line35a_refund` | 2555 | 2555 | match | provisional-source-interpretation: Provisional zero-tax return; QCD unresolved |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line1a_wages` | 100836 | 100836 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line8_additional_income` | 24328 | 24328 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line9_total_income` | 125164 | 125164 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line10_adjustments` | 2719 | 1719 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line11_agi` | 122445 | 123445 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line12a_standard_deduction` | 15000 | 15750 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line15_taxable_income` | 107445 | 103173.2 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line16_income_tax` | 18634 | 17612 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line23_other_taxes` | 3438 | 3438 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line24_total_tax` | 22072 | 21050 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line25a_w2_withheld` | 14444 | 14444 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `f1040.line37_amount_owed` | 7628 | 6606 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-12 | `schedule1.line15_se_deduction` | 1719 | 1719 | match | printed-source: Schedule SE p.10 line13 |
| 1040-12 | `schedule1.line17_se_health_insurance` | 1000 | unproduced | not-produced | printed-source: Form7206 printed deduction; eligibility/source records incomplete |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line1a_wages` | 31620 | 31620 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line11_agi` | 31620 | 31620 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line12a_standard_deduction` | 30000 | 31500 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line15_taxable_income` | 1620 | 120 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line16_income_tax` | 162 | 11 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line20_nonrefundable_credits` | 162 | 11 | different | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line24_total_tax` | 0 | 0 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line25a_w2_withheld` | 609 | 609 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line34_overpayment` | 609 | 609 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `f1040.line35a_refund` | 609 | 609 | match | printed-source: Form 1040 pp. 2–3 |
| 1040-13 | `schedule3.line6j_alt_fuel_vehicle_refueling` | 162 | 11 | different | printed-source: Schedule3 line6j; printed stale tax limit remains unresolved |

## Required native-copy observations

Presence does not prove correct contents, ownership or filing acceptance.

| Scenario | Required copy | Result |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1040-01 | 1040:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-01 | W-2:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-01 | W-2:2 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-01 | Schedule 2:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-01 | Schedule 3:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-01 | Schedule H:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-01 | 5695:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-02 | 1040:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-02 | W-2:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-02 | W-2:2 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-02 | Schedule 1:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-02 | Schedule A:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-02 | Schedule C:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-02 | 8283:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | 1040:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | 1099-R:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | Schedule 1:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | Schedule 2:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | Schedule D:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | Schedule E:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | Schedule F:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | Schedule SE:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-03 | 4835:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-04 | 1040:1 | present |
| 1040-04 | W-2:1 | present |
| 1040-04 | Schedule 3:1 | missing |
| 1040-04 | 3800:1 | missing |
| 1040-04 | 8835:1 | missing |
| 1040-04 | 8936:1 | missing |
| 1040-04 | 8936 Schedule A:1 | missing |
| 1040-05 | 1040:1 | present |
| 1040-05 | W-2:1 | present |
| 1040-05 | Schedule 1:1 | missing |
| 1040-05 | Schedule 3:1 | missing |
| 1040-05 | 2441:1 | missing |
| 1040-05 | 8862:1 | missing |
| 1040-05 | 8863:1 | missing |
| 1040-05 | Schedule EIC:1 | missing |
| 1040-05 | Schedule 8812:1 | missing |
| 1040-08 | 1040:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-08 | 1099-R:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-08 | 1099-R:2 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | 1040:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | Schedule 1:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | Schedule 2:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | Schedule C:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | Schedule SE:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | 7206:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | 7217:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-12 | W-2:1 | not-evaluated |
| 1040-13 | 1040:1 | present |
| 1040-13 | Schedule 3:1 | present |
| 1040-13 | 6251:1 | present |
| 1040-13 | 8911:1 | present |
| 1040-13 | 8911 Schedule A:1 | present |
| 1040-13 | W-2:1 | present |

## Known attachment observations

| Scenario | Requirement | Result |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1040-04 | Transfer Election Statement | missing |

## Source packets

- [1040-01](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/ty25-1040-mef-ats-scenario-1-12012025.pdf)
- [1040-02](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/1040-mef-ats-scenario-2-12012025.pdf)
- [1040-03](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/ty25-1040-mef-ats-scenario-3-10202025.pdf)
- [1040-04](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/ty25-1040-mef-ats-scenario-4-10212025.pdf)
- [1040-05](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/ty25-1040-mef-ats-scenario-5-10202025.pdf)
- [1040-08](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/1040-mef-ats-scenario-8-10212025.pdf)
- [1040-12](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/1040-mef-ats-scenario-12-10292025.pdf)
- [1040-13](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-efile/1040-mef-ats-scenario-13.pdf)
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion docs/ats/ty2025-check-replay-2026-10-09.md
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Expand Up @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ The eight retained partial Form 1040 fixtures were replayed through the public r

**Selected observations: 41 match / 12 differ / 1 not produced, out of 54 (76% matching).** These are calculation checks chosen from retained printed amounts, source arithmetic and provisional interpretations. They are not an enumerated IRS business-rule set or a representative sample; matching values do not prove native/PDF output or accepted transmission.

**Updated engineering estimate: about 60% of individual ATS checks, uncertainty range45–75%.** This replaces75% after the public-entry and preparation replay exposed how much earlier evidence was component-only. The estimate is judgment across the broader required checks, not41/54 re-labeled as an IRS pass rate. Later deductions/credits are heavily represented here; most identity, attachment and IRS-rule checks are not.
**Historical engineering estimate (superseded by the [October10 check ledger](./ty2025-check-ledger-2026-10-10.md)): about 60% of individual ATS checks, uncertainty range45–75%.** This replaces75% after the public-entry and preparation replay exposed how much earlier evidence was component-only. The estimate is judgment across the broader required checks, not41/54 re-labeled as an IRS pass rate. Later deductions/credits are heavily represented here; most identity, attachment and IRS-rule checks are not.

| Scenario | Match | Different | Not produced | Public/native preparation | Required source copies |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
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